CEDEC2026 Lecture Maps the Three Valleys Blocking Next-Gen Consoles
The lecture gives a technical basis for why expectations for a PS5 successor announcement have weakened, framing semiconductor constraints rather than market strategy as the binding limit on console generational leaps.
Reporting from 1 source: GameBusiness.jp.
Technical journalist Zenji Nishikawa's CEDEC2026 lecture, 'What Are the Three Valleys That Next-Generation and Next-Next-Generation Game Consoles Must Overcome?,' argues that the console generational cycle is hitting hard technical limits. Moore's Law has slowed, process node labels have become nominal, and per-generation performance gains have fallen from tens of times to single-digit multiples. The lecture says even doubling or tripling prices would not clear walls like power consumption.
Zenji Nishikawa's lecture at CEDEC2026, 'What Are the Three Valleys That Next-Generation and Next-Next-Generation Game Consoles Must Overcome?,' was structured in three parts: the current state of semiconductor technology evolution, the three valleys consoles must overcome, and the future shape of game consoles. The lecture noted that process node notation has become largely nominal beyond the 20-nanometer generation. TSMC's N4 process used in the PS5 Pro is actually an improved version of the 5-nanometer generation, sometimes called 4-nanometer. The author's own expectation for next-gen graphics is subdued: graphics have hit a ceiling, so the focus would be maintaining high-end graphics while providing high frame rates.
Synthesized by Yomimono from the 1 cited source below, including Japanese-language reporting where cited, then editorially reviewed before publishing.