AI Futures Project Predicts Superhuman AI Researcher in 2027
The AI Futures Project, led by former OpenAI governance researcher Daniel Kokotajlo, predicts a Superhuman AI Researcher could appear in 2027.
1 source 7h ago
Reporting from 1 source: GIGAZINE.
Why it matters
The AI Futures Project revised its timeline after METR found AI-assisted R&D at Anthropic running at roughly double the earlier pace, and it now argues for pausing cutting-edge development if a Superhuman AI Researcher arrives in 2027.
Key Facts
- The AI Futures Project is led by Daniel Kokotajlo, a former OpenAI governance researcher.
- METR evaluated AI-assisted R&D at Anthropic from August 12 to October 29, 2026.
- METR found Anthropic improved model performance on specific tasks at roughly twice the pace of March 2024 to October 2025.
- The AI Futures Project estimates a 35-65% chance that AI automating all white-collar work appears by 2028.
- The AI Futures Project previously put the chance of a Superhuman AI Researcher by 2029 at about 50%.
The forecast follows METR's report that Anthropic improved AI model performance on specific tasks at roughly twice the pace seen from March 2024 to October 2025, an acceleration METR ties mostly to AI use in research and development. The group also estimates a 35-65% chance that AI automating all white-collar work arrives by 2028.
The forecast rests on a METR evaluation conducted at Anthropic from August 12 to October 29, 2026. METR concluded that as of October 2026 Anthropic was improving model performance on specific tasks at roughly twice the pace of March 2024 to October 2025, and attributed most of the acceleration to Anthropic's use of AI in research and development.
The AI Futures Project defines a Superhuman AI Researcher as an AI matching the orientation of the best researchers at a general-purpose AI company that can fully automate coding. Its earlier estimate put the chance of such a system by 2029 at about 50%, and the METR findings moved the timeline forward.
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